Medical experts warned Wednesday that the region and the country could be facing a massive wave of COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks as the delta and omicron variants collide with the flu season and increased holiday season gatherings.
The warnings came as Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the highly contagious omicron variant could now represent 13% of all COVID-19 cases in New York and New Jersey.
At the same time, most top county officials on Long Island this week said that they will not enforce a new state mandate on mask and vaccination requirements in indoor public areas — leaving the region by January lacking a strong plan of attack against the virus, medical experts said.
In a briefing with the CDC on Tuesday, leading federal health officials said that with the omicron variant spreading rapidly, already rising cases of the virus could peak in a wave of infections as soon as January, according to news reports.
Omicron cases jumped sevenfold in a single week, raising concerns that at that pace hospital systems could become severely strained as the delta variant continues its own surge, the Washington Post reported.
Currently, omicron makes up about 3% of the cases across the country, Walensky said on Wednesday, with the delta variant continuing to dominate.
“We expect to see the proportion of omicron cases here in the United States continue to grow in the coming weeks,” she said during a White House COVID-19 Response Team Briefing. “Early data suggest that is more transmissible than Delta with a doubling time of about two days.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House chief medical adviser, struck a note of optimism, pointing to several studies that showed booster shots from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna were more effective at protecting people from the omicron variant than two doses of those vaccines.
“Our booster vaccine regimens work against omicron,” he said. “At this point there is no need for a variant specific booster.”
Dr. Adrian Popp, chair of infectious diseases at Huntington Hospital, agreed that the combination of the variants, the flu and the holiday indoor gatherings — on top of already high case numbers — could send numbers soaring even more on Long Island.
“I don’t know if I can call it a perfect storm, but it is quite a bit of a concern,” he said.
“The new variant omicron seems to be at least as transmissible as the delta, if not even more transmissible,” he said, meaning case numbers are likely to increase even more in coming weeks.
A week ago, omicron accounted for 0.5% of COVID-19 cases in the United States, with the delta variant accounting for 99.5%, he said.
“The implication is that the omicron will spread a lot more and maybe even become dominant down the road in the next couple of weeks, maybe a month or so,” he said. “This raised a lot of questions and a lot of concerns among infectious disease physicians.”
Flu cases, while low last year, appear to be on the rise this year, Popp added. And as the weather turns colder and the holidays arrive, people are increasingly moving indoors for gatherings.
If COVID-19 cases rise much more, that could mean fewer hospital beds for people suffering other health problems like heart attacks or strokes, he said.
On the positive side, Popp said, initial evidence indicates omicron may produce less severe symptoms in people. And about 70% of New Yorkers are vaccinated.
Long Island has seven confirmed cases of omicron — four in Suffolk and three in Nassau, according to state data. Infectious disease experts say that is likely a significant undercount, since only a small number of COVID-19 tests are sent to a special state laboratory at Wadsworth for more sophisticated testing to determine if a variant is present.
Long Island on some days is producing more than 2,000 new cases a day of COVID-19. Its seven-day positivity level in testing is approaching 7%. It was as low as 2.08% as recently as Oct. 28.
Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday implemented a statewide mandate requiring people entering indoor public places including restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, sports and concert arenas, offices and Broadway plays to either wear a mask or show proof of vaccination. Each location must choose one of the policies.
County health departments are supposed to enforce the mandate.
But Hochul also said the state will not compel counties to enforce the mandate. Violators could face civil or criminal penalties and up to $1,000 in fines for each violation.
Incoming Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who takes over Jan. 1, said he will instruct the health department not to enforce the mandate, meaning they will not conduct inspections or issue fines.
“Health care professionals have indicated that the statistics we have to watch carefully are hospital admissions and ICU population,” Blakeman said Wednesday. “Right now we are in good shape. Our resources are better utilized making vaccinations and testing available to all who want and need it and not having the Health Department tied up with fining businesses and individuals.”
The current Nassau executive Laura Curran said the county will “not be actively enforcing” the mandate in her final weeks, but would respond to complaints about violations.
Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said the county will not do “hard enforcement” of the mandate with fines or punitive action, but instead will seek to “educate” and “inform” the public on the mandate.
Popp said he believes the mandate should be enforced.
“I understand people in general are getting a little bit tired about all these prevention measures,” he said.
“But in some ways, one has to balance personal liberties with the community public health issues and the health of the community we live in,” he added, noting that masks and vaccination reduce transmission of the virus and serious health impacts.
In spring 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, “pretty much health care came to a halt because the hospitals were pretty much overwhelmed with COVID care and a lot of people who needed elective surgeries and other care had to have their care delayed,” he said.
Confirmed cases of the omicron variant have been found in 36 states in the U.S. and over 75 countries, Walensky said
She said it is vital for people to get vaccinated and receive their booster shots in an effort to counter the impact of the variant.
“This also means continuing to be vigilant about masking in public indoor settings, in areas of substantial or high community transmission,” she said.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
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