No one really knows the odds of a second coronavirus wave as the nation leaves lockdown, but the best bet is that it depends on how people behave.
Some states are seeing a rise in cases, which just crossed the 2 million mark nationwide. That’s most often a reflection of more testing. But Arizona, for one, seems to be seeing an increase in the percentage of tests that come back positive — and that’s true in scattered other areas, too.
Overall, though, new cases nationally last week grew at the slowest rate since March. And many predictions of doom are falling far short: Pundits were sure Florida’s restart, with even salons and gyms reopening, would lead to disaster. Hmm: Cases there have risen about 28 percent in the last two weeks — but testing is up 37 percent, so the key rate is falling.
Most important, the national rates of hospitalizations and deaths also continue downward. Just nine states are seeing their rates tick up. Texas, despite an increase in hospitalizations, is still seeing its death rate go down. So is Florida.
Many experts point to data on how humidity, sunlight and breezes seem to affect the virus’ spread and see reason for some optimism as summer starts — and renewed caution come the fall.
For now: Food and Drug Administration chief Stephen Hahn says the White House Coronavirus Task Force hasn’t found any correlation between reopening and increased cases. Some states have reopened and seen no spike — Colorado, for example. And things vary within states: Los Angeles County had more than half of California’s new cases last week, while San Francisco had no new cases for three straight days.
Eric Toner, a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, believes some of that variation is simply random luck — while some can be attributed to differing standards on hygiene and social distancing.
Hence the real bottom line: It’s up to each of us and all of us to maintain social distancing and wear face masks when we can’t, wash hands obsessively — and, yes, avoid large crowds.
Now more than ever, the country’s health is in its people’s hands.
