The flood of evictions that politicians and housing advocates desperately warned of has yet to materialize three months after the Supreme Court revoked the Biden administration’s COVID-19 eviction ban.
Eviction filings remain below pre-pandemic levels despite dire predictions of mass homelessness when the Supreme Court struck down the eviction moratorium in August.
In the first three months since the moratorium ended, eviction filings increased by roughly 20% compared to the final three months the ban was in place, according to the data released last week by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University.
And yet the number of eviction cases remains roughly 40% below pre-pandemic levels, the Eviction Lab found.
“This was a manufactured crisis that allowed the administrative state to make up rules it wasn’t allowed to make up,” said John Vecchione, an attorney with the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which filed a class-action suit to end the moratorium. “The idea that these landlords are itching to throw someone out is a lot of hooey.”
When the moratorium ended, the forecasts from housing activists and liberal politicians couldn’t have been more alarming.
The National Low Income Housing Coalition estimated “millions of people” would lose their homes while “the [COVID-19] delta variant ravages communities.”
The Aspen Institute said that 3.5 million were likely to be tossed out of their homes.
Rep. Cori Bush, a Missouri Democrat and Black Lives Matter activist, predicted 11 million people would lose their homes and protested the end of the ban by leading a sleep-over demonstration outside the Capitol.
Ms. Bush did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
Experts gave several reasons why the eviction onslaught never materialized.
One of the key factors is that the government stepped in to fill the void. The Treasury Department picked up the speed in which it disbursed federal rental assistance funds to cities and states, while local governments enacted their eviction bans before the federal moratorium expired.
Other reasons include landlords becoming more willing to cut deals and an improved job market making it easier for tenants to afford rent.
While no single factor undercut some of the gloomiest predictions, each played a role in keeping evictions well below historical averages, experts said.
In New York City, the city’s eviction moratorium kept eviction filings at 85% below the pre-pandemic average since the federal ban was revoked. Austin, Texas, which has one of the most stringent eviction moratoriums in the country, saw its eviction filings remain about 20% below historic averages after the federal ban was struck down.
Evictions have surged, however, in some places that were only protected by the federal moratorium.
In Las Vegas and Columbus, Ohio — two cities without local eviction protections — both surpassed their historical average for eviction filings since August. More than 4,500 eviction filings occurred in October alone, exceeding the pre-pandemic average by 25%.
That’s not happening everywhere, though only 37% of the country is covered by some sort of local eviction ban.
When Connecticut’s state moratorium expired at the end of June, its courts were flooded with filings. More than 1,000 cases were filed in September alone. Despite the increase and lack of local protections, Connecticut rates remain about 40% below historical averages.
Some local protections are set to expire soon. Austin’s eviction moratorium will lapse on Dec. 31. New York City’s will expire on Jan. 15.
Jasmine Rangel, a research specialist at Eviction Lab, said it’s unclear how the looming expirations will impact eviction filings across the nation.
“We have to see how these specific areas with strong local protections act in the new year,” she said. “Whether it’s completely eliminated or just held off a large tsunami of evictions, the state and local actions have really helped.”
Another possible reason is the federal government has begun rapidly distributing the $46 billion in federal rental assistance set aside by Congress as part of the COVID-19 pandemic relief package.
After a slow start plagued by computer problems and bureaucratic snafus, the Treasury Department picked up the pace in the fall. More than 2.5 million payments have been dolled out, and the Treasury Department estimates that at least 80% of the program’s funding will be spent or allocated by the end of the year.
In September alone, the Treasury Department wrote checks for nearly $2.8 billion to help cover the cost of unpaid rents.
Several large cities and states have already exhausted their federal rental assistance.
Texas and Atlanta have stopped accepting new applicants, while Oregon has temporarily halted taking new applications. California and Philadelphia have warned they are close to exhausting their funds.
Texas disbursed nearly $2 billion in funds to roughly 284,000 households.
According to Eviction Lab’s data, municipalities that doled out funds saw fewer eviction filings.
Arlington, Texas, for example, had initially distributed 9.5% of its allocation in June and July and saw 846 eviction cases, about 98% of its historical average. Chesterfield County, Virginia, spent 88% of its allocation during those months and only 162 cases were filed over those two months, roughly 15% of its historical average.
That’s because the funds have helped tenants cover back rent and also give landlords waiting to collect money confidence that the rent will come, thus stopping them from pulling the trigger on evictions.
Other government programs also are working in combination with the rental assistance relief have helped keep a flood of evictions at bay.
“We theorized that increased support like the child tax credit or expanded unemployment helped families survive the financial strain of the last few months,” Ms. Rangel said.
Mr. Vecchione, the lawyer with New Civil Liberties Alliance, worries about what will happen to landlords when the government programs run dry. He said many landlords are already selling off their property or otherwise getting out of the business rather than struggling in this environment.
“The money being paid helps them mitigate the damage, but you don’t know how long it will last,” he said. “How long will the states and federal government continue to prop up renters?”
Still, landlords are willing to make deals and negotiate with tenants to keep them in their homes even if they are behind on rent.
An October study by Housing Matters, an initiative of the Urban Institute, a non-profit think tank, concluded that most landlords are willing to barter with tenants who get behind on rent.
The study found that landlords were willing to forgive back rent, set up payment plans, offer social services assistance, or accept services like cleaning and maintenance to help cover the debt.
“No one wants to evict their tenant,” Mr. Vecchione said. “It’s a pain in the neck to evict a tenant. When the market functions as it should, they make deals. These deals are being made again.”
