Last month, a viral post attributed to Stanford University circulated on social media claiming that if you can hold your breath without coughing for more than 10 seconds, you most likely don’t have Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. I initially believed it was credible and forwarded it to friends before I learned it was fake. I have studied influence campaigns for most of my career. How could I have been so foolish?
And then I began to wonder about the impact that pandemic conspiracies like this one, labeled “infodemic” campaigns by the World Health Organization, will have on the American election in November. What sorts of lies, rumors and wild theories about the coronavirus will enshroud the Democratic and Republican campaigns, conventions, debates and Election Day? American voters will be adrift in a fog of disinformation, uncertain whether to believe anything they read or hear. As a result, there is likely to be an even more fractured electorate shaping American society for the next four years, and perhaps well beyond.
Russia, China and activists will use the infodemic as a weapon
Let’s be honest. We are heading into an election marked by a flood of disinformation about voting procedures, science and health care, the economy, foreign policy and the moral fabric of our society. We are likely to see conspiracy theories and false narratives from state actors such as Russia and China, news outlets and advocacy groups, and individuals ranging from partisan activists to white supremacists, and even our friends and neighbors who may inadvertently share conspiracy theories without malicious intent. Already, the infodemic has created misleading content that may have a grain of truth when it comes to testing, prevention and origins of the disease.
Russia is continuing its campaign of sowing distrust in democratic institutions and American science in an effort to deepen the divide in the American electorate. For years, Russian operatives have pushed conspiracy theories that global health outbreaks like Ebola and deadly forms of the flu have been manufactured by American scientists. Now all Russia needs to do is amplify false narratives originating in America by Americans about the coronavirus. Heading into November, we may see Russia use a multifaceted campaign of malign influence about the pandemic to influence the election. The use of Russia’s media outlets, including RT and Sputnik, trolls, bots, blogs, and cultural and business channels, to spread such propaganda are not new. However, in the Covid-19 era, the amplification and combination of them should make all of us nervous.
Russia is not the sole potential spoiler. China, domestic partisans, and white supremacists are likely to continue to use the infodemic to exploit divisions in the electorate. Chinese operators have been taking lessons from Russia’s playbook, spreading conspiracy theories to spread fear and fracture the American society. China has been flooding the internet with disinformation, including the unfounded accusation that the United States Army introduced the coronavirus when Army personnel visited Wuhan in October 2019.
White supremacists have been busy as well by taking advantage of the shelter-in-place orders to spread disinformation, recruit followers and try to foment a war against minorities. Finally, let’s not forget about political and media figures who have been pushing alternative narratives about the origin of the virus and the effectiveness of drugs to treat the disease.
The reality is sinking in
The infodemic may well come to dominate the election campaign season. We will continue to see conspiracy theories that accuse minorities of manufacturing and spreading the coronavirus, perhaps driving down turnout. Federal authorities have warned that Russia will use various means to discourage voting, by secretly sponsoring rallies and protests, hacking voter registration websites and spreading rumors of violence and intimidation at polling places. These tactics could be particularly effective if America is not back to business as usual or if we see a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the fall. Finally, while states make preparations for voting by mail, we are likely to see foreign and domestic disinformation campaigns about the reliability of the voting process, to a point where citizens may not know where to turn for credible information.
Covid-19, here we come: It’s time to prepare
There are many things that we as citizens, governments, technologists and civil society can do now to prepare for November. First, let’s recognize that we as American citizens have both power and responsibility. We need to do our homework about voting procedures, candidates and issues that matter to us, and turn out to vote. Let’s take the time to think critically about the veracity and sources of information we consume, and take care not to inadvertently spread misinformation.
Next, as state and local election officials have begun making plans to conduct an election during a pandemic, they must educate the public about changes to voting procedures, including voting by mail, in-person voting hygiene and physical-distancing protocols.
Finally, media organizations, both mainstream and social, will need to be alert to disinformation, act swiftly to alert consumers and take down content that violates terms of service.
Yes, Russia, China and others will continue their disinformation and influence campaigns. It is our choice how to respond.
Vera Zakem (@verleza) is a senior technology and policy adviser with Technology for Global Security. She advises governments, industry and civil society on countering disinformation and the role that technology plays in democracy.
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