(ZERO HEDGE) To wit, a team of researchers from Yale University in New Haven, Conn. published a paper earlier this month on their studies of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the sewage in the Greater New Haven area. In the abstract of their report, the team determined that “when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations were highly correlated with the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 =0.99) and local hospital admissions (R2 =0.99). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a seven-day leading indicator ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and led local hospital admissions data by three days.”
The search for a reliable leading indicator is critical for developing an effective policy response, since the most closely watched data (reports on the number of newly diagnosed cases) is a lagging indicator, since tests typically aren’t run on an individual until symptoms of the virus have already started to appear.
