California has officially put its deadliest month from COVID-19 behind it. Now, will it stay that way?
September brings with it a fresh slate and a declining death curve, meaning that if the numbers continue trending in this direction, then yes, August will have been California’s deadliest month of the pandemic.
The 80 new fatalities reported Monday, according to data compiled by this news organization, brought the monthly total to 3,796, 21% more than July, which set the previous record. But when the state set the previous monthly mark in July, the curve of deaths was still going up, and cases had not yet begun to decline, either.
Now, it appears both metrics — as well as hospitalizations — are on the decline.
The seven-day average for deaths fell Monday to about 108 per day, the first time the state has averaged fewer than 110 deaths per day from the virus since the week that ended July 26. About 25% fewer people died over the past seven days than at its peak, which came during the seven-day period that ended Aug. 6, when 1,016 Californians perished from the virus.
Cases and hospitalizations have been slashed by even more.
California has cut its cases nearly in half from their peak. The 7,619 new cases Monday continued to bring the daily average down to about 5,140 per day, the lowest it has been since June 27. There were about 36,000 cases reported around the state over the past seven days, compared to about 69,000 between July 6-12, a 47% decline. Just since the beginning of August, the state has slashed its cases by 40%.
After falling below 4,000 on Saturday for the first time since June 22, hospitalizations also continued to decrease Sunday, the most recent day for which data was available, to 3,878 active coronavirus patients — a 46% decline from their peak July 21, when 7,170 Californians were hospitalized with COVID-19. The 1,223 patients requiring intensive care units Sunday were also the fewest since the third week of June and a 40% decline from their July 21 peak.
Los Angeles County is responsible for about a third of the decline in hospitalizations, or a net loss of over 1,100 patients in LA alone since the July 21 peak. It has decreased its share from about 40% of the statewide hospitalizations to about 27% now — close to its 25% share of California’s population. The Bay Area, meanwhile, once made up for 6% of statewide hospitalizations but now accounts for 16% — still smaller than its 20% share of the population.
Despite August claiming the most lives across the state of any month of the pandemic, there were fewer deaths this month in Los Angeles than the month prior: 1,163 in August vs. 1,252 in July. The nation’s most populous county also dramatically decreased its case count, from a total of 84,952 in July to 53,287 in August.
However, the long and ongoing battle with COVID-19 in Los Angeles has resulted in a death toll larger than 41 states — 5,784 as of Monday — and more total cases than all but California, Texas, Florida, New York and Georgia.
In the Bay Area, there were more deaths and cases than any prior month of the pandemic. The 312 fatalities in the region were about 30% higher than in July — but still a rate three times lower than Los Angeles when accounting for population.
Despite the month-to-month decline statewide, the Bay Area added about 15% more cases in August (33,511) than in July (29,146).
Overall, there were about 50,000 fewer cases reported around California in August (211,269) than July (262,878) — a decline of about 20%. The Bay Area increased its share from about 11% to about 16%, while it decreased from about 32% in Los Angeles in July to about 25% in August.
On Saturday, California became the first state with 700,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and on Monday the death toll in the state went over 13,000 — a number only trumped by the 32,000 fatalities in New York and the 15,000 in New Jersey.
Nationwide, the death toll climbed to at least 183,000 with more than 6 million known cases — both numbers larger than any other country in the world.
California’s COVID-19 progression, by the numbers*
Aug. 1-31: 3,796 deaths | 211,269 cases
July 1-31: 3,139 deaths | 262,878 cases
June 1-30: 1,945 deaths | 123,012 cases
May 1-31: 2,088 deaths | 62,877 cases
April 1-30: 1,917 deaths | 42,306 cases
Pre-April: 214 deaths | 9,846 cases
*cases and deaths reflect date they were reported
Source: Bay Area News Group tracking of county health department databases
