SANTA CRUZ — In a sign that shelter-in-place efforts may be making an impact, data suggests Santa Cruz County is seeing more success at flattening the coronavirus curve than almost anywhere else in the state.
As of Thursday, the small county had 80 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Cases are doubling about every eight days, according to county Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel.
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” Newel said at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flattening the curve.”
Earlier projections indicated the county should expect to see cases double every six days, according to Newel.
“A two day difference doesn’t sound like very much, but it’s huge,” she said. “And so I want to make sure that the community understands that this is because of them and their efforts and their willingness to shelter in place.”
Newel’s comments were based on Santa Cruz County’s internal data and modeling, she confirmed via a spokesperson later Thursday.
She cautioned, however, that the data is based on a relatively small number of confirmed cases.
“With only 80 known cases, any modeling we do for our community is very tentative,” she said. “And we’re really looking at it on a day to day basis.”
Another dataset, compiled by the LA Times, shows the Santa Cruz County case-growth rate may be even slower — doubling every 13 days, based on data from the past week.
An LA Times chart shows Santa Cruz County to have the flattest curve, overall, of any county in the state that had 10 or more confirmed cases by mid-March.
Neighboring Monterey County’s case curve also ranks among the flattest in the state, according to the LA Times chart.
The note of optimism came on the same day the strictest health order to date took effect across Santa Cruz County.
Newel ordered all parks, beaches and trails closed — and banned surfing altogether — Thursday through April 15. The order, she said, is aimed at keeping visitors and residents alike from crowding outdoors for a period that includes Easter weekend and much of Passover.
“Where we’re seeing big death rates and infectious outbreaks is when people gather in large groups, whether it be for funerals, for church services, for social gatherings,” Newel said. “It’s so important that our community understands that that is not allowed by the current health officer orders, and from an infectious disease point of view is very dangerous.”
In another update shared Thursday, the county’s health care providers are ramping up testing capacity, and three providers plan to have testing available by next week.
According to Newel, the new testing is planned at Dominican Hospital, a second Dignity Health site, and the county-run health clinic at its Emeline Avenue campus.
Recoveries, hospitalizations
Out of the 80 confirmed cases, 30 Santa Cruz County residents have recovered from COVID-19, according to new data released by Wednesday evening.
“That’s a new number that we’re just releasing now,” Newel said Thursday, calling the recoveries “fantastic news.”
Thirteen county residents had been hospitalized for COVID-19 by Thursday. Of those, 10 have one or more underlying medical condition.
Released data does not specify their demographics, but Newel said Thursday those hospitalized are disproportionately older and male — consistent with wider trends.
At least four of those hospitalized are in intensive care, according to data from the California Department of Public Health. An additional three patients in intensive care in county hospitals are suspected of having the virus, according to the state data.
Santa Cruz County’s surge-capacity is roughly 50 ICU beds, a capacity that health officials continue to predict will likely be exceeded by mid-May.
Once the ICU beds are full, patients could be transferred to Seton Medical Center in Daly City, according to Health Services Agency director Mimi Hall.
“They have said that they will be receiving patients from Santa Cruz should we experience a surge that exceeds our hospital system and our alternate care sites,” Hall said.
The 220-bed Seton Medical Center is one of two hospitals leased by the state to serve as a surge facility.
Data released, modeling withheld
Data released Wednesday evening by county health officials included the first overview of case location — broken into north, south and mid-county — more detailed age demographics, and a look at patients’ hospitalization rates based on underlying health conditions.
It’s “the kind of data the community has been asking for, but we just didn’t have enough cases yet to bring things down in a way that would protect patient privacy,” Newel said. “Now that we have more cases, we can do that.”
Health officials have so far declined to release other data, including internal modeling of best- and worst-case scenarios for the county in weeks ahead.
Those models were shown to the Board of Supervisors in a recent closed-session meeting, according to Newel.
Newel said she is weighing various concerns around releasing projections, which range from undermining public trust with quickly changing models to promoting fear on the one hand, or complacency on the other.
“I think we’re getting there,” Newel said. “I think we’ll be releasing those projections very shortly.”
For more local information on COVID-19 and sheltering in place, go to santacruzhealth.org/coronavirus, call 211 or text “COVID19” to 211211. Residents may also call 831-454-4242 between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m., seven days a week.
BY THE NUMBERS
Santa Cruz County coronavirus outbreak
Cases: 80Hospitalized: 13Recovered: 30Deaths: 1Negative tests: 1,673
Source: Santa Cruz County Health Services Agency data, as of Thursday afternoon.
