California’s case count continued to plummet Tuesday, though there were the most deaths from COVID-19 reported around the state in nearly two weeks, according to data compiled by this news organization.
The 149 fatalities reported across California on Tuesday were the most since Aug. 21, 11 days ago, increasing the seven-day average to about 109 deaths per day over the past week. That’s about 25% lower than its peak in early August, which ended as the state’s deadliest month of the pandemic.
The 109-deaths-per-day average is lower than nearly any point in the past five weeks, and the number of new cases fell to its lowest mark since June 25 — two-and-a-half months ago — with 4,311 reported statewide Tuesday to bring the seven-day average down to about 5,000 per day.
That means California is about halfway to crushing its summer spike, which brought case loads of nearly 10,000 per day and death toll of more than 7,500 between July and August. Even if California plateaued at a rate of 5,000 cases per day throughout September, it wouldn’t come close to the totals of the past two months, each with well over 200,000 cases.
When June began, there were about 2,500 new cases per day in California, but that average had increased to more than 5,000 by the final week of the month for a total of about 123,000. Now, to start September, the state has cut its case rate nearly in half — from almost 10,000 per day in mid-July to about 5,000 — with a chance to complete the bell curve that lasted almost an entire summer.
To fully crush the curve back to June levels, the case rate would have to be slashed in half again by the end of the month. If that occurred at an equal rate statewide, most counties would meet the new tier-two reopening threshold, and many would qualify for tier-three status.
Currently, San Francisco and Napa counties are the only in the Bay Area to meet the tier-three threshold, which requires seven or fewer cases per 100,000 residents per day and a test-positivity rate below 8% for two weeks.
And while California no longer accounts for hospitalizations in its local reopening guidelines, those also continue to decrease in nearly every region of the state. The statewide total fell by another 29 patients, according to its most recent data, to 3,849, the fewest since June 21.
Two of the hardest-hit regions of the state — Los Angeles County and the San Joaquin Valley — have cut their hospitalizations by 53% and 47%, respectively, since their peaks (July 18 in LA; Aug. 2 in SJV). The Bay Area has reduced its hospitalizations by about 28% from a late-July peak, but its hospitals and intensive-care units never came close to reaching capacity, like other areas of the state.
The 753 new cases in LA County on Tuesday were also its fewest since June 15, while its seven-day average hit its lowest point since June 9, cut by more than half from its peak. Deaths in LA County were also down about 33% from a month ago, but they’ve persisted since April at a rate rarely falling below 30 per day, resulting in a share of the statewide death toll disproportionate even to its 10 million population.
In the Bay Area, Contra Costa and Santa Clara counties each reported four deaths from the virus Tuesday, as the region’s death toll remained well below other parts of the state and the country. The per-capita death toll in the Bay Area was less than half the statewide rate and, when compared to other states, lower than all but nine.
On Saturday, California became the first state to 700,000 total cases, and on Monday its death toll climbed over 13,000. Only New York and New Jersey have accounted for more of the nation’s 185,000-plus fatalities from COVID-19, while no other state has recorded more cases of the virus.
