Although many counties paused reporting for Labor Day weekend, the data that did come in continued to show a pandemic in retreat across much of California.
There were fewer people hospitalized from COVID-19 than any point since mid-June, while the seven-day positivity rate fell to 4% — half its peak — for the first time since late-May, according to data analyzed by this news organization.
The last time the positivity rate was that low, the state was averaging about 2,000 cases and 50,000 tests per day, compared to more than 112,000 tests per day over the past week. The current seven-day average of new cases took a dive, down to almost 4,000 per day, with the number reported on Labor Day less than one-third what it was the prior Monday.
All three numbers — the positivity rate, hospitalizations and seven-day average of cases — have been slashed by half or more from their respective peaks. Daily cases are down 60% since July 12, while there are 54% fewer patients hospitalized now than July 21, and the positivity rate hit half of its 8% peak on July 25.
Fewer than half of California’s 58 counties issued updates Monday, and many haven’t updated their case and death counts since Friday. While that could lead to inflated numbers early this week as health departments catch up from the long weekend, those cases won’t be a reflection of any holiday celebrations.
Any spike from the holiday weekend is unlikely to show up in the data for another two weeks, at least. It can take up to that long for symptoms to appear, plus additional time to get tested and report the result.
Heading into Labor Day weekend, California was trending in the right direction by practically every measure.
Daily cases first started trending downward at the end of July, followed by hospitalizations at the start of August, and by the end of the month, daily deaths had begun to decline, too. Still, California hasn’t averaged fewer than 100 deaths per day from COVID-19 since mid-July. That’s a month and a half of at least 100 Californians dying each day, on average.
On Monday, the depressed holiday total dropped that seven-day average to about 106 per day, the closest it has been to falling below that threshold in nearly six weeks. If it keeps trending that direction, the deadliest month of the pandemic may be behind California.
The 2,453 new cases Monday increased the state’s cumulative count to 740,380, according to data compiled by this news organization, while 34 newly reported fatalities increased the death toll to 13,763.
No state has reported more cases than California, while only New York and New Jersey have accounted for a larger share of the nation’s 185,000-plus fatalities from the virus. The total number of cases in the U.S. grew to more than 6.3 million, more than any other country.
