Steve Serby previews the AFC East as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2021 NFL season.
1. New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick
2020 record: 7-9
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: LB Dont’a Hightower, QB Mac Jones, OLB Matt Judon, OLB Kyle Van Noy, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, CB-S Jalen Mills, OT Trent Brown, C Ted Karras, NT Davon Godchaux, DT Christian Barmore
Key departures: QB Cam Newton, G Joe Thuney, OT Marcus Cannon, S Patrick Chung, DT Adam Butker, DT Beau Allen, LB Brandon Copeland, WR Julian Edelman, CB-S Jason McCourty
First-and-goal: Jones won over Belichick, so Newton was released in part to avert any quarterback controversy. The O-line and the weaponry have been upgraded. RB Damien Harris averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season and is primed for a breakout season. The addition of Judon and the return of Hightower upgrade the defense considerably. Judon brings the heat and Hightower brings the leadership. Judon can bring the heat and Hightower brings the leadership. The secondary is a strength as long as disgruntled CB Stephon Gilmore can stay healthy following a preseason on the shelf. Jake Bailey is an All-Pro punter. Belichick means business as he attempts to tie Tom Brady with a seventh Lombardi Trophy.
Fourth-and-long: Chemistry could be an early-season struggle given the influx of new faces in free agency. Jones has a chance to be better than advertised but he’s still a rookie.
Serby Says: 11-6. The talent level is dramatically better and Belichick will see Brady hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in his sleep.
2. Buffalo Bills
Coach: Sean McDermott
2020 record: 13-3
O/U wins: 11.5
Key additions: WR Emmanuel Sanders, DE Gregory Rousseau, DE Boogie Basham, RB Matt Breida, QB Mitchell Trubisky, DE Efe Obada, P Matt Haack
Key departures: WR John Brown, DT Quinton Jefferson, TE Tyler Kroft, WR-KR Andre Roberts
First-and-goal: Josh Allen was signed to a six-year, $258 million contract for a reason. No one was more pleased than No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs. Sanders is 34, but he’s a pro. WR Cole Beasley made NFL Network’s Top 100. The O-line has been kept together. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is well-respected. Rousseau and Basham will juice the pass rush. CB Tre’Davious White is elite. LBs Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are a pair of dynamic duos. WR/KR Isaiah McKenzie is a problem. PK Tyler Bass (141 points) set a club single-season record. Trubisky is a good insurance policy. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have built an enviable culture.
Fourth-and-long: Allen rushed for 421 yards and eight TDs, but more is needed from RBs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. The Zach Ertz trade rumors have quieted down, so they’re hoping TE Dawson Knox can step up.
Serby Says: 10-7. It is easier to achieve than maintain, and Belichick wants his division title back.
3. Miami Dolphins
Coach: Brian Flores
2020 record: 10-6
O/U wins: 9
Key additions: WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Will Fuller, RB Malcolm Brown, DE Adam Butler, FS Jason McCourty, CB Justin Coleman, QB Jacoby Brissett, S Jevon Holland, G Liam Eichenberg, OLB Jaelan Phillips, DT John Jenkins, TE Hunter Long, P Michael Palardy
Key losses: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, C Ted Karras, DT Davon Godchaux, RB Matt Breida, Kamu Grugier-Hill
First-and-goal: Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are a dream cornerback tandem. Waddle is a difference-maker with some Tyreek Hill to him. Returner Jakeem Grant is dynamic. TE Mike Gesicki is a weapon and WR DeVante Parker has 13 TD catches over his last 25 starts. PK Jason Sanders enjoyed a career year in 2020.
Fourth-and-long: QB Tua Tagovailoa is accurate but needs to make his move behind a youthful O-line that needs to grow up fast. Brissett is a very good backup. Deep-threat Fuller has been bitten repeatedly by the injury bug. RB Myles Gaskin is more of a passing-game weapon than a threat on the ground. Phillips is being counted on to upgrade a pedestrian pass rush. Flores is a natural leader.
Serby Says: 9-8. Tua has the weapons to make a playoff push.
4. New York Jets
Coach: Robert Saleh
2020 record: 2-14
O/U wins: 5.5
Key additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, LB C.J. Mosley, LB Jarrad Davis, WR Elijah Moore, RB Michael Carter, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Lamarcus Joyner, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, TE Tyler Kroft, DE Shaq Lawson, LB Hamsah Nasirildeen, LB Jamien Sherwood, RB Michael Carter, S Michael Carter II
Key losses: QB Sam Darnold, QB Joe Flacco, RB Le’Veon Bell, RB Frank Gore, WR Breshad Perriman, LB Jordan Jenkins, DE Henry Anderson, LB Neville Hewitt, LB Harvey Langi, DT Steve McLendon
First-and-goal: Saleh brings much-needed energy and competence. LT Mekhi Becton must get in shape to lead a ground-and-pound offense. Darnold could have used Corey Davis and Moore. Even with Carl Lawson (Achilles) lost for the season, DT Quinnen Williams should be dominant. Mosley returns from his 2020 opt-out as the defensive leader, and safeties Marcus Maye and Joyner make a nice tandem in the secondary.
Fourth-and-long: Wilson will have his share of wow throws, but he’ll have his rookie moments as well. The loss of Lawson’s pass rush places inexperienced CBs Bryce Hall, Javelin Guidry and Isaiah Dunn in greater jeopardy. ILB Jarrad Davis (ankle) will miss two months or so and rookie Sherwood might have to replace him. Field goals could be problematic.
Serby Says: 4-13. This is the wrong division at the wrong time for a rookie QB and rookie head coach.
