The New England Patriots have lost three games in a row heading into Sunday’s game vs. the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, but two VSiN handicappers, Matt Youmans and Drew Dinsick, agree this is not the time to bail out on Bill Belichick as a 4-point underdog.
Youmans: All profitable trends eventually come to an end, and betting on Belichick after a loss is no longer a reliable handicapping angle. The Patriots were just pummeled, 33-6, by the 49ers in the most lopsided home loss of the Belichick era, and New England has lost three consecutive games for the first time since 2002.
The Patriots’ two decades of dominance against Buffalo is rendered irrelevant in this week’s matchup. It’s sometimes tempting to buy on bad news, though, and the betting public wants nothing to do with New England now. The same was true in Week 7, when I joined several so-called sharps in an ill-fated pursuit of the Patriots, but I’ll give this one more shot.
With two games remaining against the Jets, New England (2-4) could get back into the AFC East race with an upset of the Bills. Belichick is 14-4 ATS as an underdog since 2010. With another loss, Belichick likely will become a seller at next week’s trade deadline.
Dramatic storylines aside, there’s not as much of a fear factor in betting against the Bills, who scored on six field goals Sunday in an 18-10 victory over the Jets. Josh Allen has regressed — and never was a legitimate MVP candidate anyway — with four touchdown passes and three interceptions in the past three games, while Buffalo’s defense ranks 21st in the respected metric Defense-Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA), according to Football Outsiders.
It’s reasonable to expect a bounce-back effort from Belichick’s defense and from quarterback Cam Newton, who was benched Sunday after throwing three interceptions and knows his starting job is on the line this week.
Dinsick: This is the highest-leverage game on the slate, as a win would put the Patriots back in the conversation for a playoff spot while a loss would most likely spell the end of the season. This should incentivize Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to empty the playbook in terms of unique scheming and game-planning for this familiar opponent as this game sets up as the Patriots’ last stand.
Despite the woes in the passing game (30th in EPA per dropback), New England’s rushing attack is the NFL’s most successful by far, generating 0.103 expected points per play. And that matches up brilliantly against a bottom-five rush defense (Bills are allowing 0.049 EPA per rush in 2020).
Rush defense also has been the Patriots’ key weakness, however the Bills have shown no ability to take advantage with their rushing attack, managing the 26th ranked EPA at -0.123 points per rush attempt. This puts the onus on Allen to succeed through the air against the most difficult secondary he has faced this season, as he will likely have limited drive opportunities with the Patriots set up well to control the clock and game state.
The Bills are rightful favorites but will be hard-pressed to win by more than a field goal based on my numbers, so the Patriots are a solid play at +4.
