After nearly a month of unprecedented social distancing efforts amid the coronavirus pandemic that have altered the lives of Californians, public officials across the state this week have begun offering their insights as to when the restrictions may finally be eased.
A common theme appears to be emerging: Now is not the time to loosen stay-at-home orders.
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday said California needs to increase testing, protect high-risk residents from infection and expand hospital capacity before the state can begin to modify the stay-at-home order he imposed a month ago and gradually return to a sense of normalcy.
The parameters Newsom outlined suggest the state must meet a high bar before walking back the order.
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“I want you to know it’s not, it will not be a permanent state,” he said. “We recognize the consequences of the stay-at-home orders have a profound impact on the economy, your personal household budget, your personal prospects around your future.”
It could be sometime in May before state and local officials begin to seriously contemplate how they might start to gradually ease the stay-at-home order.
“This is not the end, and it’s not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning,” Anna Roth, director of Contra Costa Health Services, said Tuesday, quoting Winston Churchill’s comments after a victory in World War II in 1942. “Now is not the time for us to take a victory lap.”
Dr. Chris Farnitano, Contra Costa County’s health officer, went further. “It’s not even the end of the beginning. It’s still the beginning of the beginning in this crisis,” Farnitano told the county Board of Supervisors.
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“If we do not continue our efforts to really reduce the spread within our community by our social-distancing and staying-at-home efforts … we are still at risk of facing a surge that could overwhelm our hospitals,” he said.
California’s hospitals have not been stretched to the limit, as medical facilities have been in New York. As of Wednesday, California had reported 790 deaths, while New York state has reported more than 10,000. Over the last week, California has averaged 1,177 new cases and 48.3 new deaths per day.
In Los Angeles County, health officials on Tuesday confirmed 40 additional deaths linked to the coronavirus, the highest number reported in a single day. The county’s death toll now stands at 360, Public Health Department Director Barbara Ferrer said, noting that the mortality rate has increased to 3.6%.
Ferrer also confirmed 670 additional COVID-19 cases, bringing the county’s total to more than 10,000. Officials have previously said the case count includes people who have recovered, but there is no way to track those numbers.
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Of more than 63,000 people who have been tested in the county, 11% were positive. Ferrer said that percentage could indicate that of Los Angeles County’s 10 million residents, “we could have as many as 1 million people at some point in time” who are infected. Of course, not every individual will obtain testing for COVID-19.
An internal Los Angeles Fire Department email reviewed by The Times indicates that the city may hold off on allowing big gatherings, like concerts and sporting events, until 2021 because of the coronavirus threat. Mayor Eric Garcetti raised the issue during his weekly briefing Monday with a group of high-level staff from several departments, including Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas, according to the email.
Newsom and officials in his administration say their strategy to slow the spread of the virus is working, pointing to relatively low growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations as evidence that staying home and social distancing are preventing a surge of infections.
But that success comes with a cost.
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More than 2.3 million Californians filed for unemployment benefits in the last month as businesses closed due to state mandates, and the economy continues to unravel. Some students lost access to free and reduced-cost meals when schools shuttered, and many have not participated in virtual learning. The governor’s strategy of distancing residents can also lead to social isolation and increased health risks for the elderly and vulnerable.
Despite his attempts to quell uncertainty, Newsom has not yet provided a timeline for when the state’s nearly 40 million people can expect to return to work — or move about freely. And to those struggling to make ends meet, that’s the question they want answered most.
“When are the restrictions going to be lifted?” asked Miguel Tot, who last worked at his job managing a downtown Los Angeles restaurant on March 16. “There’s no timetable on that, so I have no idea, you know, when normality is going to come back.”
Times staff writers Dakota Smith and Ben Welsh contributed to this report
