Stat model shows how big the playoff implications are for Patriots in Saturday’s game against Colts

Model shows playoff implications for Saturday’s Patriots-Colts game

The Patriots still control their own destiny to win the AFC’s top seed, but a loss Saturday would significantly hurt their chances.

Mac Jones and the Patriots look to move a step closer to getting the AFC’s top spot. Barry Chin / The Boston Globe

The Patriots’ matchup against the Colts is a big one. You probably already knew that.

New England enters Indianapolis with a 9-4 record, leading the AFC East. On the other side, the Colts have a 7-6 record as they look to continue their playoff push after a poor start to the season.

But Saturday’s matchup has some bigger implications outside of a late regular-season win. Entering the Week 14 slate, the Patriots held the No. 1 seed in the AFC. However, they lost that spot (for now, at least) after the Chiefs snuck out of Los Angeles with an overtime win over the Chargers on Thursday.

So, the Patriots don’t have a mulligan at their disposal if they want the conference’s top seed even though they currently hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.

No matter the result of Saturday’s game, the Patriots’ chances to win the AFC’s top seed will be significantly affected. Entering Saturday, the Patriots have a 40 percent chance of securing the top spot, according to the New York Times’ The Upshot. A win would boost that to 56 percent, allowing the Patriots to still control their own destiny entering the final three games of the season.

But a loss on Saturday would hurt the Patriots more than a win would help them. If they lose, the Patriots’ chances of getting home-field advantage would drop to 21 percent as they would need the Chiefs and the Titans to drop at least one more game to have a chance to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Not only would a loss hurt the Patriots’ chances to win the AFC’s top seed, it’d also hurt their chances to win the division. If the Patriots lose to the Colts and the Bills beat the Panthers on Sunday, which Buffalo is expected to do despite losing their last two games, New England would enter the Week 16 matchup against the Bills in a near must-win situation.

A Patriots loss on Saturday and wins by Bills and Dolphins on Sunday would still give the Patriots a 64 percent chance to win the AFC East entering Week 16. But if those results happen in Week 15 and the Patriots lose to the Bills in Week 16, New England’s chances to win the AFC East drop all the way down to 27 percent as both teams would hold 9-6 records going into the final two games.

On the flip side, a Patriots win on Saturday would nearly put them in cruise control to win the division. If New England beats Indianapolis, its chances to win the AFC East would be at nearly 90 percent, regardless of whether Buffalo wins or loses on Sunday. A Patriots win Saturday would mean they would have to lose at least two of their final three games in order for the Bills to have a shot to win the division.

Despite their 6-7 record, the Dolphins still actually have a chance to win the division. But they need to win out and for the Patriots to lose out to even have a chance to win the AFC East.

The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15, but they need some things to happen. In order to clinch a playoff spot this week, they’ll at the very least need to win against the Colts and for the Dolphins to the Jets. After that, they would need at least two, if not three, of the following things to happen: a Browns loss or tie, a Ravens loss, a Broncos loss or tie, or a Steelers loss or tie.