More testing has become a maxim in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, the gateway to lifting economically devastating lockdowns imposed to limit the deadly virus’ spread. But how much testing do we need, and when will we reach that level so we can reopen and resume our lives?
Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will try to start answering those questions Wednesday by detailing plans for ramping up testing in the Golden State.
Health officials and political leaders have so far avoided precise answers, in part because experts have wildly differing estimates and supply constraints and logistics remain obstacles. Newsom said Tuesday that California is averaging 14,500 COVID-19 tests a day.
“That number is still inadequate to ultimately get to where we need to go,” Newsom said. “The question many of you may be asking — what is that number? And that number is very dynamic, and depending on who you talk to people will suggest we need to be doing a minimum of 1 percent of our population every week, others say it needs to be every day.”
To put that into perspective, 1 percent of California’s nearly 40 million residents is 400,000 people. To reach 400,000 tests a week, California would need to average more than 57,100 tests a day, nearly four times today’s level.
To test 400,000 a day, the state would have to increase its current capacity almost 28 times.
That number is almost as many tests as experts say is needed nationally. The U.S. is averaging about 150,000 COVID-19 tests a day now. Harvard researchers have indicated 500,000 to 700,000 tests a day are needed. Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb has said that the country will need to initially conduct up to 3 million tests a week — about 429,000 a day — to reopen.
But Newsom added that the question gets more complicated than that.
“Some people say, well you’re asking the wrong question — testing is not one-off, we want to test and retest and then retest again. All of those things are going to not only be considered — are being actively reviewed and considered.”
The question comes amid recent research indicating that while California has conducted more tests than any state other than New York, its rate of testing per capita is among the lowest among the 50 states.
Newsom noted that since his administration formed a testing task force a couple weeks ago, average daily COVID-19 tests have grown from 2,000 to 14,500. The task force set a target of 25,000 by the end of the month, he said.
“I hope and expect they will exceed that still,” Newsom said.
The governor added that developments are happening daily and that he will detail them Wednesday.
“Just today we signed a new contract — I’ll talk about it tomorrow, I’m tempted to do so now — as it relates to getting more of these testing sites up and operational even by the end of this week in rural parts of the state,” Newsom said.
“But that would include prioritizing homeless shelters, prioritizing even more than we have, because as you may recall on April 10 we announced our prioritization of testing in our skilled nursing centers and our licensed senior centers as well as prioritizing our diverse communities.”
