California Governor Gavin Newsom is projecting that 56% of his state’s population will be infected by the Chinese coronavirus within two months, stating as such in a letter to President Trump.
“We project that roughly 56 percent of our population-25.5 million people- will be infected with the virus over an eight week period.”
Newsom is making the projection in light of an appeal for President Trump to deploy the U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy to the port of Los Angeles.
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Newsom’s appeal suggests California is expecting the most drastic outcome possible as part of the state’s coronavirus preparation.
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But there’s ultimately ample reason to be doubtful of the governor’s worst-case scenario. There aren’t even 25.5 million people worldwide who have been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus as of March 20th.
For half the state’s population to become infected with the disease, it would have to spread with far more vitality and contagious force than it has in China or Italy, the two countries hit the hardest by the disease. In China, where the virus struck before the global scientific community knew anything about it, authorities are giving total figures of around 81,000 infections.
There’s reason to be suspicious of China’s official figures, but it would be difficult for the Communist Party to cover up a whopping 25 million diagnosed cases.
There may very well be a compelling case for the deployment of the hospital ship to Los Angeles, as Newsom requests. Another hospital ship is already being sent to New York harbor, where the virus is strongest in the nation aside from its original entry point in Washington state. But claiming that California is going to be struck harder than China and Italy combined makes it hard to believe that the state is estimating its coronavirus needs in a sober-minded fashion.
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