5 things to know about the Bills ahead of the crucial Week 16 matchup against the Patriots

Mere weeks after losing to the Patriots 14-10 amid snow and wind in Buffalo, the Bills will face New England again on Sunday.

This time, the playoff stakes are even higher, with both teams desperately trying to gain an upper hand in the AFC East standings.

The Patriots will enter at 9-5 (and in first place), while the Bills are 8-6 (in second). After losing to New England in Week 13, Buffalo suffered another defeat to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in overtime on Dec. 12, but responded by defeating Cam Newton’s Panthers 31-14 on Sunday.

Before both teams take the field at Gillette Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m., here are a few things to know about the Bills:

Making the inevitable adjustments after the first Patriots matchup

For a number of obvious reasons, the Bills won’t simply recreate the game plan that failed during the Dec. 6 loss to the Patriots in the two teams’ first divisional matchup.

“We’ve got adjustments to make, certainly, because [the Patriots] handled us pretty well,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott told reporters on Monday.

Notably, the weather is not expected to be as much of a factor. While there’s a chance of rain on Sunday in Foxborough (with temperatures in the upper 30s), the wind—which was consistently strong during the game in Buffalo, including gusts that approached 50 mph—is predicted to be far less impactful. This will likely allow for a more expansive passing game from Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

But even aside from the impact of the weather, Buffalo’s strategic approach simply did not work earlier in December.

In general terms, the Bills’ red zone offense has to improve to have a chance against New England. Buffalo was just one of four in scoring touchdowns from red zone trips in the first game with the Patriots, a fact which McDermott pointed out during his postgame remarks.

Taking a “one-dimensional” view of stopping the Patriots’ offense

After piling up 222 yards rushing against the Bills’ defense in Buffalo, the Patriots are likely to once again try and go to the ground game early and often on Sunday.

The Bills know that stopping the run might be something that the game could hinge on. This is especially true given the Patriots’ ongoing strategy for managing the amount of pressure placed on rookie quarterback Mac Jones.

“There’s tremendous value in being able to minimize the run game so that quarterback can’t lean on it,” Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier explained. “Most offenses want to be two-dimensional. They want to be balanced and be able to run the ball, play action pass, and take shots down the field. So when you take that run game away and make them a one-dimensional offense, it’s just so much easier for us to defend that style of offense versus when it’s balanced.”

Making the Patriots offense “one-dimensional” is what Colts linebacker Bobby Okereke said was Indianapolis’ primary goal on defense. And after watching the Colts end the Patriots’ seven-game winning streak in Week 15, Bills defenders clearly agree with the strategy.

“We saw the advantage of getting up early,” said Bills defensive lineman Harrison Phillips as he previewed the Patriots game. Phillips agreed that it will be important to try and make New England as “one-dimensional” as possible.

Buffalo will be shorthanded at wide receiver

Even if weather conditions are more permitting of a passing game than was the case during the windswept game in Buffalo, Allen will have a new problem to confront.

The Bills will be without wide receiver Cole Beasley, who was added to the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday. Beasley reportedly tested positive for the virus, according to ESPN. He will miss the game against the Patriots on Sunday and, as he is unvaccinated, will be out for 10 days.

The loss of Beasley is significant for Buffalo. The 32-year-old is second only to All-Pro teammate Stefon Diggs in receptions (76) and receiving yards (640).

Allen might also have to pick his way through New England’s stingy secondary without the services of another wide receiver: Emmanuel Sanders. The 34-year-old veteran missed last week’s win over the Panthers with a knee injury.

One potential sign of good news for the Bills is that Sanders returned to a walk-through on Wednesday after not practicing at all the previous week. Still, his status for Sunday remains unknown.

Like every team, the Bills are dealing with players missing due to COVID-19

As of Wednesday, the Bills have five active players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and two members of the team’s practice squad.

Along with Beasley, Buffalo has offensive linemen Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins and Bobby Hart, linebacker Tyrel Dodson, as well as defensive ends A.J. Epenesa and Mike Love on the list. Both Hart and Love are the practice squad players included.

The Patriots also have several players out due to COVID-19 as the NFL—and the sports world in general—tries to deal with the recent widespread increase in cases.

A push to include the running game more often

During the Bills’ recent win over the Panthers, Buffalo averaged 5.25 yards per carry on first down. In all, the Bills ran for 63 yards on 12 first down carries.

While Buffalo’s passing attack on early downs is effective—93 of Allen’s 145 yards passing against the Patriots in the first game came on first down—the possibility of mixing in more early runs could take some of the pressure off.

New England controlled the line of scrimmage in the earlier matchup, holding the Bills under four yards per carry (to a total of 99 yards on the ground).

Still, the Patriots have allowed 1,714 rushing yards so far in the 2021 season, 24th in the league. Buffalo, with a nod towards improving red zone efficiency, might make the running game more of an emphasis.