14 Million Americans Have Been Laid Off So Far Due To COVID-19
A staggering 9% of working Americans, or 14 million people, have
been laid off as a result of the Chinese coronavirus panic, while
25% of workers have had their hours reduced according to
extrapolated polling by
Survey USA.
A SurveyUSA poll taken one week ago showed just 1% of Americans
would take home no paycheck.
Virtually every American was
either laid off or has family members & friends who have.I know AN ENTIRE IMMEDIATE FAMILY (husband,wife,two adult children
& their 2 spouses) all laid off in last 72 hours.But some people want to argue over what name we should use for the
virus— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio)
March 20, 2020
Of note, in California alone, Governor Gavin Newsom said on
Thursday that unemployment insurance filings had spiked by
80,000 on Tuesday alone, vs. the usual rate of around 2,000 per
day.
Meanwhile in Ohio, jobless claims have spiked to nearly
140,000 vs. last week.
OHIO JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 139,468
SUN-THU VS 4,815 WEEK AGOand so it begins
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne)
March 20, 2020
Of those laid off, per SurveyUSA, high school educated
workers are twice as likely to have lost their jobs as college
graduates, while women and older workers are almost twice
as likely to have been laid off than men and younger workers.
Early markers on the road from recession to depression as the
Coronavirus threatens to stop the world from spinning on its axis
show that 1 in 4 working Americans have had their hours reduced as
a result of COVID-19, according to SurveyUSA’s latest time-series
tracking poll conducted 03/18/20 and 03/19/20.Approximately 160 million Americans were employed in the robust
Trump economy 2 months ago. If 26% have had their hours reduced,
that translates to 41 million Americans who this week will
take home less money than last, twice as many as SurveyUSA found in
an identical poll 1 week ago. –Survey
USA
Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 USA adults nationwide
03/18/20 through 03/19/20. Of the adults, approximately 60% were,
before the virus, employed full-time or part-time outside of the
home and were asked the layoff and reduced-hours questions.
Approximately half of the interviews for this survey were completed
before the Big 3 Detroit automakers announced they were shutting
down their Michigan assembly lines. For most Americans, events
continue to unfold faster than a human mind is able to process the
consequences.
And Goldman Sachs’ research appears to confirm this
ugliness, as they compile anecdotes from recent press
reports and company announcements to estimate the magnitudes of the
increase in layoffs and decline in consumer spending due to the
virus.
March data available thus far show a sharp contraction in US
activity, with very weak manufacturing surveys, a 33%
increase in initial claims over the last week, and large declines
in our monthly activity nowcast and the high-frequency
indicators we are tracking to gauge the impact of the
coronavirus.
Many US states have reported unprecedented surges in jobless
claims this week and Goldman estimates based on these news reports
suggest that nationwide jobless claims will rise to
roughly 2¼ million (seasonally adjusted) in the next claims report
covering the week of March 15-21, a roughly nine-fold increase over
the pre-virus level.
Here are the key data points available so far by industry
below.
Hotels.
Hotels are expecting to run at much lower occupancy rates than
usual.
-
According to the President of the American Hotel & Lodging
Association, hotel occupancy is currently around 10%
to 20% in the busiest cities of the country, compared to
around 80% a few week ago. -
Many hotels in New York City have reported under 10% occupancy
rates, with the largest hotel in the city (Hilton Midtown) shutting
down. -
A survey of New
Orleans hotels showed that many have completely shut down,
while others are operating at only 10 to 15 percent of their normal
occupancy levels. -
Data from the hotel market-tracking firm STR suggests that last
week’s hotel occupancy was down 24% relative to last year. This
will likely fall further. -
Chicago’s downtown hotel occupancy rate fell to 35% last
week, down from 85% in the same period last year. Occupancy rates
in Seattle
and San Francisco also fell below 40% last week. -
At least 14 hotels have already closed in Las
Vegas.
Many states have banned in-person dining in restaurants and
bars, although takeout and delivery are typically still
available.
-
The most recent data reveal 40-90%
year-on-year declines in OpenTable reservations across major
cities.
Public Transportation.
Almost all airlines have announced cuts in capacity, and
ridership on trains and buses is also down.
-
United Airlines announced cuts in capacity of about 50% for
April and May. Even with cuts announced, they are expecting load
factors to drop into the 20-30% range. -
Delta Air Lines announced overall capacity reduction of
70%. -
American Airlines has cut capacity for international long-haul
flights by 75%. -
Amtrak is cutting the frequency of the Northeast Corridor
routes by 60%. -
C&J Bus Lines, which provides intercity bus service in the
northeast, has seen passenger volumes drop by 70% in the last
week. -
Subway ridership in New York City was down 20% year-over-year
over the full week of March 7-13 and was down 40% by the last two
days of the week.
Many major events have been cancelled, and services involving
large scale gatherings are likely to be very limited.
-
All major sports leagues have cancelled or postponed their
seasons, including the NBA, NCAA basketball, MLB, NHL, MLS, PGA
Tour, and NASCAR. -
Many if not all large concerts have been cancelled following the
CDC’s recommendation of no gatherings of more than 10 people and
the outright ban of large gatherings by several states. -
Movie theaters across the country have shut down. -
Disney World, Disneyland, Universal, SeaWorld, and theme parks
across the country have shut down. -
Many if not most large
museums have shut down.
Retail
-
Thousands of US stores are closing, including major
retailers. -
Large department stores such as Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s, and
Nordstrom have closed all of their US stores. -
Apple and Microsoft have closed all of their retail stores in
the US.
Casino Gambling
-
All casinos in Nevada have closed.
-
Almost all major casinos across the country have also
closed.
Goldman is not alone, BofA warns that jobs will be
lost but even more hours will be cut.
We expect a total of approximately 3.5 million jobs
will be lost with the biggest hit in 2Q of 1 million per
month. This will send the unemployment rate higher,
nearly doubling to 6.3%. The industries to be hit the hardest are
leisure & hospitality and retail. These sectors have a high
share of hourly workers – about 80% for the former and 70% for the
latter. And these workers struggle to work from home. This means
they are vulnerable to a reduction in hours worked and likely
outright job cuts.We look for initial jobless claims to spike to 3
million in the week ending March 21st, reflecting the
mass layoffs/furloughs across the country due to the COVID-19
outbreak.
On the spending side, the numbers are even more
devastating, as Goldman shows:
Finally, the interest in unemployment-related services continues
to rise…
Tyler
Durden Fri, 03/20/2020 – 09:51
