The last time Dr. Scott Morrow penned a message to the citizens of San Mateo County, it was to inform them of the “grave crisis” facing the county and the country — that without heeding shelter-in-place orders, “we will be facing an Italy-type catastrophe very soon.”
That was March 23, more than three weeks ago, at which point there were 142 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county. On Monday, Morrow wrote again: “It appears that we have flattened the curve, at least this first curve, for now. I am hopeful we have avoided the catastrophe that New York and Italy experienced, for the time being.”
In those three weeks, the number of cases in California has grown tenfold, to nearly 25,000 on Tuesday. Nationwide, where cases number 572,000, it has grown even more rapidly. But in San Mateo County, the case count has risen at half the pace of the state and even more slowly than the nation.
On Tuesday, health officials reported 20 additional cases, bringing the county’s total to 721, up from 142 three weeks ago. For the eighth straight day, the county’s death toll remained at 21. There were 15 new patients hospitalized and two additional patients in intensive care units, but county hospitals remain far from capacity.
The county has 85 total ICU beds, with coronavirus patients taking up 22 of them, outnumbered by those with other conditions. It still has 37 available, as well as 163 more ventilators and 311 more surge beds.
Those numbers look promising, but Morrow cautioned the actual number of cases in the county is likely much higher. He estimated that 2-3% of the county — 15,000 to 25,000 people — has already been infected and some 5,000 or so are still contagious. But without shelter in place, that number could be as high as 75,000, he said.
“This is based on the facts that many characteristics of the virus are unknown and that testing remains very constrained here,” Morrow wrote, saying he view the numbers of cases and deaths reported by the county “skeptically … not because those aren’t accurate from what we know, but because they don’t reflect what’s actually going on very well.”
Reliable testing and tracing is one factor Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Tuesday that he needs to see before he lifts the state’s shelter-in-place order. Dr. Sara Cody, the health officer for neighboring Santa Clara County, emphasized on Tuesday the power given to local health officials in California.
Even though Morrow has been encouraged by San Mateo’s adherence to social distancing, he is concerned about lifting the restrictions too soon.
“One thing I do know is that releasing the restrictions on movement and gatherings too soon, or in not an incremental enough way, will diminish the gains we’ve made and will unleash the very thing we are attempting to avoid,” he wrote. “So we have a long way to go. There are no quick fixes.”
