Even as residents remain mostly sheltered at home, Contra Costa County health officials are expecting a surge of hospitalizations in the next couple months and estimate that between 2,000 and 14,000 people could die this year from the fast spreading COVID-19 disease.
Contra Costa health officer Chris Farnitano delivered that estimate Tuesday during a meeting of the Board of Supervisors.
“Looking at some of the models, the number of total deaths during the next few months in Contra Costa County could range anywhere from 2,000 to 14,000,” he said. “The different ranges are based on the number of cases we have and how effective social distancing could be.”
He said that in order to provide that estimate, health officials are looking at the six- to 12-month time period that they expect the pandemic to last.
“It’s not just the top of the surge (in cases), which we expect to last a month or two, but the whole cumulative time,” he said. “There is a lot of variation of the models, but the deaths in Contra Costa we can expect in the next few months are between 2,000 and 14,000, with the low number being 2,000 and the high number being 14,000 over several months in Contra Costa.”
He added that health officials aren’t clear yet on how effective the social distancing is.
Some models that evaluate miles traveled among Contra Costa residents, say that miles traveled have dropped 50 percent, and that ridership on public transit is down 80 to 90 percent, Farnitano explained. He added that testing limitations and delays in getting testing results have made it hard to estimate how many cases the county actually has, although he noted that testing result turnarounds are “improving.”
Typically, there are about 140 deaths of all kinds in Contra Costa, but Farnitano explained the death rate of the county could double or triple during the peak of the crisis, which is expected to come in the next month or so.
On Tuesday, the county reported 212 confirmed cases in Contra Costa, and three deaths so far.
Farnitano though was hopeful about the rate at which cases are doubling, which is currently at a rate of eight days, he said.
“There are some early encouraging signs that doubling time is increasing, which is what we want,” Farnitano said.
He said because the Bay Area had implemented the sheltering orders earlier than other places, it was in better shape than New York or other cities, but warned people not to get too comfortable with that.
“We’re seeing outbreaks in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago,” Farnitano said. “But these scenarious could happen in the Bay Area if we relax social distancing.”
The county joined others in the Bay Area in extending the sheltering order through May 3. The new order starts Tuesday night and requires people to stay at home except for essential activities, such as grocery shopping. It also beefs up the restrictions with more limits on business operations — such as banning most construction and closing public parks.
The death toll estimates Farnitano provided Tuesday come after San Jose city officials last week gave their own staggering projections that 2,000 people could die by June in Santa Clara County, even with social distancing orders in place.
With more modest measures or lack of compliance, fatalities could triple to 6,000, and without any social distancing the number could reach as high as 16,000, according to San Jose City Manager Kip Harkness. County public health officials there declined to endorse those estimates or provide their own numbers at the time. And Santa Clara County Executive Jeff Smith criticized San Jose for putting those numbers out, noting the projection was based on data from other parts of the country and world and is a “worst-case scenario” estimate.
A University of Washington study last week projected more than 81,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 over the next four months, including more than 6,100 in California and more than 10,200 in New York.
University of Washington health metrics sciences professor Ali H. Mokdad cautioned that it’s difficult to project without adequate testing and knowing how many cases there actually are of coronavirus, but noted the modeling in the study acconts for social distancing measures in California and other states and that the projections would update if those measures change.
Staff writers Maggie Angst and John Woolfolk contributed reporting.
