When Americans started moving around again in April, they started driving up transmission of the coronavirus again — and it’s not a good sign of what is to come in the fall, a top pandemic modeler said Thursday.
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said data shows that since the end of April, the number of contacts people have with others are “going up and up.”
That explains the recent rise in cases, Murray told CNN.
The pandemic forecast: His team’s model now projects that 169,890 people will die from Covid-19 in the US by October 1.
Daily deaths will likely decrease through June and July, but the country likely will see a sharp rise in deaths in September, the model projects.
Murray said the summer months should see a dip in cases, in part, due to seasonality. More testing is also available and more people have started to wear masks.
“But the whole thing turns around at the end of August, and we go from just under 400 deaths a day all the way up to about 1,000 deaths a day by the end of September, which bodes really badly past September 1,” Murray said.
What we can do to change the predictions: “Masks really work,” Murray said.
Masks provide about 50% protection, but only 40% of Americans wear one now, he said. He predicts that number will slip. Social distancing works, he said, but people will steadily continue to widen their circle of contacts.
“Those are two things that are really within the control of people,” Murray said. “We will have to see.”
