3 things Patriots fans should know about the Buccaneers defense

The key battle of the night Sunday might not be Tom Brady against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots defense — as juicy as that headline is.

In reality, Sunday’s mega-matchup likely hinges on what rookie quarterback Mac Jones can do against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led by veteran defensive mind Todd Bowles.

The Buccaneers offense will score its points no matter what you do; it’s up to the defense to stem the bleeding as best they can. The Patriots offense, on the other hand, has struggled to get into the end zone through three games this year and comes into Week 4 as the worst red-zone offense in the league.

As daunting as the challenge of beating the Bucs appears, Jones and the Patriots offense do have an opportunity to make plays against a defense that’s given up its share of big ones already in 2021.

Here are a few things everyone, including Jones, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the rest of New England’s offensive crew, should keep in mind about the Buccaneers’ defense.

They blitz a lot.

You thought the Miami Dolphins brought a lot of pressure? Just wait.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Buccaneers have blitzed quarterbacks on passing downs 61 times through three games, which leads the NFL by a good margin. The Dolphins are second with 49 blitzes.

The only reason Miami holds a slight lead in blitzes per dropback over Tampa Bay is because the Los Angeles Rams eventually turned to their ground game to close things out after jumping out to a big lead against the Bucs.

Of course, Bucs pass-rushers aren’t necessarily getting home all the time, which can lead to problems (more on that later). Tampa Bay has only generated 27 pressures, which amounts to a poor pressure rate of just under 19 percent.

Still, the amount of schemed pressure and blitzes the Bucs like to throw out there could spell trouble for Jones and a beleaguered Patriots offensive line.

Right now, Jones ranks among the 10 most pressured quarterbacks in football according to Pro Football Focus and was under duress 20 times against the Saints — nearly as often as the previous two weeks combined. The rookie also (unsurprisingly) sees a pretty significant dropoff in efficiency when under pressure, which highlights the importance of keeping him clean Sunday night.

Getting Trent Brown back will hopefully add some stability to a right side of the line that hasn’t had much of it this season. But the offensive line as a whole will have a difficult task ahead to make sure the Bucs’ barrage of pressure doesn’t break their young quarterback.

They give up a ton of passing yards.

As mentioned before, the Bucs haven’t always been able to get to the quarterback despite their high blitz rate. (Interestingly, teams that blitz a lot sometimes do so because they can’t pressure the quarterback with just four rushers).

When Tampa Bay isn’t getting to the quarterback, their pass defense is what some former NFL players call “Burger King”: you can have it your way.

The Bucs are giving up a league-leading 1,015 yards passing and 52 first downs via the air and are tied for first with the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns surrendered (9).

Los Angeles schemed receivers open against them left and right last week, including an easy pick-play scheme on the goal line to free up Cooper Kupp for a score. But Tampa Bay also simply forgot to cover DeSean Jackson, whose only purpose at this point in his career is to go deep, for a 75-yard touchdown.

The Patriots don’t have a world-beating receiving corps, but they might not need one to roast the Bucs.

Jones must continue taking advantage of his 1-on-1 matchups when the Bucs do send extra men at him, as he did on his touchdown throw to Kendrick Bourne. Perhaps Jones and Nelson Agholor will have another chance to re-connect after missing on what should’ve been a touchdown in the third quarter last week against man coverage.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves: the primary goal for Jones will be to just get the ball into his playmakers’ hands with space to run. If the Patriots can keep the football moving down the field and finally capitalize on their red-zone opportunities, this will be more of a game than people think. And Jones won’t have to be spectacular to pull it off.

They’re going to try to stop Jakobi Meyers.

There’s no question who Jones trusts the most on this Patriots receiving corps if you’ve watched the first three games of the season.

Meyers easily outpaces every Patriots pass catcher in catches (19), receiving yards (176), targets (29) — the next closest is Nelson Agholor with 18 — and is the team’s most efficient receiver in terms of yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus.

Opposing teams know it, too.

Though Meyers still caught 9-of-14 targets last Sunday for 94 yards, the Saints didn’t always make it simple for Jones to get him the ball.

On a few occasions, New Orleans seemed to “bracket” Meyers, dropping a linebacker in zone coverage underneath Meyers’s deep crossing routes while another cornerback trailed the receiver across the field. The Saints did that on the first play of the second quarter, sending a blitz but dropping Demario Davis into coverage near Meyers. Jones didn’t make the mistake of throwing Davis the ball, but he still couldn’t connect with Meyers, who was trailed by two defenders, on the other side of the field.

Just as Belichick and the Patriots like to take players away from other teams, the Buccaneers can look to do the same with Meyers. That means other pass-catchers will need to step up.

Bourne certainly took on that challenge last Sunday (six catches, 96 yards, 1 TD), and Agholor did the same in Week 1 (five catches, 72 yards, 1 TD). Assuming Tampa Bay puts more focus on Meyers in the slot, they’ll have more opportunities to punish the vulnerable Buccaneers secondary.

Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry might have opportunities of their own to finally break out as well. According to NextGen Stats, the Buccaneers have allowed three tight ends (Dallas’ Blake Jarwin, Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts, LA’s Tyler Higbee) more than the league average of 2.88 yards of separation, with Pitts (five catches for 73 yards in Week 2) especially hurting them.

The bottom line: if Jones can pry his eyes away from Meyers for long enough, he’s likely to find a lot of openings against the Buccaneers defense to exploit this week.