3 questions for the Patriots as post-bye playoff push commences

Is there a way to honorarily award the Patriots a win this week to push their streak to eight games? Because even when they weren’t playing, several things came up New England’s way in Week 14.

Though the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are still nipping at their heels for the AFC’s top seed, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ walk-off win over the Buffalo Bills in Tampa Bay just awarded the Patriots a two-game lead in the AFC East with four games to play. If New England beats Buffalo in two weeks, it’ll basically put the division title on ice.

That’s a long way from where the Patriots were when they fell to 1-3 after losing to Brady’s Bucs or sat at 2-4 following their overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys. In the seven games since that Dallas defeat, they’ve gone from “in every game” to dominating every contest.

But with Bill Belichick’s squad now about to embark on a crucial two-game stretch against the Indianapolis Colts and the Bills—and with the playoffs almost a certainty—let’s take stock of what we know about the 2021 Patriots as well as the tough questions they still have to answer.

Will Mac Jones prove he can be the reason the Patriots win games?

Saying something is “as advertised” can come off a bit trite, but it’s a phrase that fits Jones fairly well.

The No. 15 overall pick in this year’s draft has, for the most part, immediately played efficient, smart football in his first season under center in the NFL. He’s operated the Patriots’ offense far better than Cam Newton did last year and more effectively than you’d reasonably expect a rookie to do.

It’s not an exaggeration to say he’s already a solid, possibly even a “good,” NFL quarterback this early in his career.

But when opposing teams start trying to force Jones to beat them with his arm by taking away the Patriots’ running game, which the Titans did with mixed results, what happens then?

Questions about Jones’s future in the league are a few years from being answered if we’re being honest. But he will almost certainly have to prove he can lead a game-winning or game-sealing drive in a playoff contest with a championship run in the balance.

Though the rookie has had a few nice moments in those situations against Houston, Dallas, and Los Angeles this year, we’ve also seen the Patriots’ offense falter in similar spots against Miami and Tampa Bay.

Jones will get his chance to put that narrative to bed soon enough. Teams like the Colts are already openly proclaiming they want to know the answer to this question themselves.

Is this defense the real deal? Or fool’s gold?

If you take the entire season into account, it’s possible only one or two defenses have been as good as the Patriots’. All in all, they boast the best scoring defense in football and a top-five unit against the pass.

Over the last seven games, though? No team comes even close to being as efficient on a play-by-play basis as the Patriots.

Interestingly, this year’s defensive unit, at least over this stretch, has been a tick better than the 2019 “Boogeymen” according to rbsdm.com’s database.

The Patriots don’t have the same level of secondary talent as that 2019 team, but their ability to switch deftly between man and zone coverage concepts has put Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant in better positions to succeed. Meanwhile, Belichick’s defense has four defensive backs — J.C. Jackson, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, and Devin McCourty — all playing at a very high level.

Up front, Matthew Judon’s excellence (12.5 sacks), the emergence of Christian Barmore as a lethal interior pass-rusher, and Kyle Van Noy’s outstanding do-it-all edge play create all kinds of problems for pass-happy teams.

One thing that might not encourage people, though: While the 2021 Patriots have been even better at defending the pass than that NFL-best unit, their run defense has been a bit worse than it was in 2019. Most recently, New England gave up 270 yards rushing to the Titans without Derrick Henry.

But somehow, even though the Patriots aren’t quite as talented or absurdly dominant as the 2019 defense was, their success this year somehow feels more real and sustainable.

They’ve been tested plenty and have shown they know how to bend while not breaking. Plus, New England’s ability to seamlessly adjust its defensive philosophy and execute unique game plans from week to week has made them arguably more dangerous to play against.

A team that commits to running the football, like the Titans do, could stress the Patriots once again in the playoffs. But this unit has already made it clear it doesn’t go down without a fight.

Are the Patriots real Super Bowl contenders? And who’s the biggest threat to a title run?

The short answer to Question No. 1: yes.

Even accounting for the 10-win Arizona Cardinals and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s hard to say there’s a prohibitive favorite to win the Super Bowl at this point in time. What’s more, the Patriots played Brady and the Bucs down to the wire when they met in Week 4 — long before they hit their stride on this streak.

More importantly in the short term, though, is the fact that the Patriots have gone 7-1 against AFC teams this season. (Their only loss was to Miami in Week 1.) New England is the top seed in the conference because they’ve dominated their conference.

Let’s assume the Bills probably can’t hang in a playoff game with the Patriots given how Belichick and his team apparently broke the Bills in prime time last week. Three teams should concern Patriots fans: the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and (healthy) Tennessee Titans.

You can certainly point to the Patriots’ past successes bottling up LA’s Justin Herbert as reason for doubt there. But Herbert is still playing some incredible football right now, and the Chargers conversely showed they could frustrate Mac Jones on the other side of the ball.

While Mahomes hasn’t played very well in 2021 relative to his standards, he does tend to have solid games against the Patriots (100.9 passer rating, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 290.3 yards per game). The Chiefs have now quietly won six in a row as well, suggesting they’re hardly as one-dimensional as they’ve appeared in the past.

As good as the Patriots’ win over the Titans was in Week 12, the absence of Henry and receiver Julio Jones loomed large over those proceedings. As Patriots fans know all too well, Tennessee is a different beast when Henry gets going. The superstar back’s return from his foot injury could change the AFC playoff picture.